COVID19

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Re: COVID19

Postby jlw034 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:18 am

AverageGuy wrote:
jlw034 wrote:Minnesota is running out of tests. Closing drive through testing centers. Only testing the critically ill, immunocompromised, and health care workers.

Any case numbers being reported are going to severely underestimated. The only number that will be accurate is deaths.

3 months to reach 100k reported cases. 10 additional days to reach 200k. Exponential growth is truly an incredible thing. India hasn't been hit hard yet. Africa hasn't been hit hard yet. America's haven't been hit hard yet.

I hope this is a wake-up call. All things considered, this is not a highly lethal virus...and it's bringing the world to it's knees. Sobering.


Which means the risk of dying is statistically very low because the denominator (numbers with the virus) has thus far been way understated.

The economic fallout of shutting down businesses, the embarrassment to humanity hoarding behavior of many and the stress to medical facilities and staff are where the real broad based suffering is going to occur, unless the calls for Social Distancing has some broad success in slowing the spread.

Worldwide the numbers who have died would not even bear mention in the normal scheme of how death always follows life.



You're right, this is a numbers game. The infected fatality rate (IFR), a number that will never be actually 100% accurate, will in all likelyhood be less than 1%. For comparison, the IFR for influenza is likely less than 0.1%.

Regardless of the risk of dying, like you said, this will stress our health care system. On an average, non-COVID19 day, the Twin Cities have about 5% vacancy in our collective ICUs. That works out to 25 beds. We are currently converting a long-term care facility to be our COVID19 hospital. Adding 25 ICU beds and 50 non-ICU beds.

I really hope the most recent US models are overly pessimistic.

And Liberty, I gave that video a try but it was too much tinfoil for me. But as long as people take proper precautions and obey guidance on reducing spread, they can speculate all they want.
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Re: COVID19

Postby Libertyrocks » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:19 pm

Anyone care to guess which famous Deep State celebrity wrote a book about typewriters?

Hint: He travels with his LC Smith Corona and posts creepy photos on Instagram.
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Re: COVID19

Postby crackerd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:20 am

Libertyrocks wrote:Anyone care to guess which famous Deep State celebrity wrote a book about typewriters?

Hint: He travels with his LC Smith Corona and posts creepy photos on Instagram.


If it's Deep State south (very south), I'd bet on Beelzebub Carville.

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Re: COVID19

Postby Dmog » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:43 pm

Just me and the other essential employee in the office today...
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You never have to tell a dog what time to be home, give them the keys, and they never ask for money.
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Re: COVID19

Postby RowdyGSP » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:08 pm

Idaho got shut down today with a stay at home order from the governor. I work in plumbing wholesale and am considered "essential" so I have to carry a permit with me driving to work. We can still go outside and go to the store if needed. I will be avoiding the stores but I will be fishing this weekend somewhere away from people.


https://localnews8.com/health/coronavir ... onference/
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Re: COVID19

Postby JONOV » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:59 am

RowdyGSP wrote:Idaho got shut down today with a stay at home order from the governor. I work in plumbing wholesale and am considered "essential" so I have to carry a permit with me driving to work. We can still go outside and go to the store if needed. I will be avoiding the stores but I will be fishing this weekend somewhere away from people.


https://localnews8.com/health/coronavir ... onference/


That's how I feel Rowdy.

My wife gets antsy when I leave the house with Gus but I tell her, "where I'm going there's nothing to touch except my car and the trees in the woods." I just wish I could find mushrooms.
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